Cowboys’ quest for a third straight national title may be its toughest
John Fuller/TheMat.com
The NCAA Division I Wrestling Tournament is set to be held in St. Louis, Mo., March 18-20, and as this event approaches, few in the wrestling community doubt that Oklahoma State can be challenged in its attempt for a third consecutive NCAA team title.
However, if the NWCA/Cliff Keen National Duals results and other recent dual results have foreshadowed how the NCAA Tournament will end up, this may be one of the closest team races in NCAA history.
Against Illinois in the National Duals finals, Oklahoma State only won five of 10 matches, but two of those wins were by fall, leading the Cowboys to a 22-15 win.
In the semifinals, the Cowboys were pushed even more, scraping out a 20-18 win over Lehigh. The win came after a pin by Steve Mocco at heavyweight.
In other words, this season is far from decided, and Illinois and Lehigh may be one of the teams to unseat the two-time defending champions.
Oklahoma State will possibly enter the postseason with four No. 1 ranked wrestlers, Zack Esposito (149 lbs.), Chris Pendleton (174), Jake Rosholt (197) and Steve Mocco (285).
Three of those wrestlers, Pendleton, Rosholt and Mocco, have won NCAA titles already. Esposito was an NCAA runner-up last year.
The firepower of the Cowboys is amazing. Add in returning All-American Johny Hendricks (165), who is currently battling some injuries, and true freshman Nathan Morgan (133), who has only lost twice this season, and it is easy to imagine why Oklahoma State is a heavy favorite.
However, the Cowboys have struggled to find regular starters at 141 and 184, and in the meantime have greatly struggled at 125 and 157. It does appear that Daniel Frishkorn and Clay Kehrer, respectively, will take over those weights.
While it is possible to win an NCAA title with only six All-Americans, it is also very difficult.
It was Ohio State that took five wrestlers to the NCAA Tournament last year. All five earned All-American honors, including one NCAA champion, one third-place finisher and two fifth-place finishers. Given these results, the Buckeyes were still only able to tie for third place as a team.
And therein lies the problem for Oklahoma State. In its first two title runs, there was at least one wrestler who did not wrestle as high as his seed. However, last year, the Cowboys had two wrestlers, Hendricks and heavyweight Will Gruenwald, who wrestled above their seeds.
Two years ago, five wrestlers finished below their seeds for Oklahoma State.
In other words, plan on at least one wrestler not doing as well as you expect. And that is what makes both Illinois and Lehigh so dangerous.
The Fighting Illini has potential national champions in Kyle Ott (125), Mark Jayne (133) and Alex Tirapelle (157). The power structure in this lineup in exactly opposite of the power structure for Oklahoma State, a major reason as to why this battle could be so intriguing.
Illinois also has high All-American candidates in Pete Friedl (174) and Brian Glynn (184). With three other wrestlers likely to get seeded, Anton Dietzen (149), Donny Reynolds (165) and Tyrone Byrd (285), the Illini would have one more seeded wrestler in this tournament than Oklahoma State.
Last year, Illinois did have most of this same lineup intact. The team was only able to place seventh in the country. Illinois fans will hope that can be chalked up to a lack of experience in the postseason.
Under Mark Johnson, Illinois has become a powerhouse in waiting. However, whether it is in the Big Ten Championships or the NCAA Tournament, this program has struggled to get to the next level as a team.
The peaking process is one that all programs, including this very Oklahoma State team, have had to endure. On average, it takes a program three years to learn how to peak in time for the NCAA Tournament. This is the third year for Illinois with this crop of wrestlers.
Lehigh also has a very good power structure in its lineup, but there is a definite lack of depth up and down the starting rotation.
Defending NCAA champion Troy Letters (165) is a heavy favorite to win his second NCAA title and two-time national runner-up Jon Trenge (197) should be right in the mix again as well.
Cory Cooperman (141) and Travis Frick (174) also should be in the mix for the Mountainhawks. But there is a strong possibility that this team will only send seven or eight wrestlers to the NCAA Tournament.
A team as powerful as Oklahoma State can get away with that. A team such as Lehigh that needs all the points it can get to win an NCAA title cannot.
It seems to be more of a stretch for Lehigh to win this tournament than for Illinois, but matchups cannot be predicted. Head-to-head bouts will be crucial, and it is very possible that a 197-pound final between Rosholt and Trenge will happen. A matchup of that magnitude could very well decide the NCAA team champion.
Iowa State may be one team that sneaks into the title hunt if Illinois, Oklahoma State and Lehigh start to knock each other off. With highly-seeded Nate Gallick (141), Trent Paulson (157), Travis Paulson (165), Nick Passolano (174) and Kurt Backes (184), this team could score some major points.
But the Cyclones’ worries seem to be the same as those of Lehigh “lack of enough other wrestlers scoring points.
Michigan and Nebraska have also improved as the season has moved on.
The Wolverines tied Illinois in a dual meet recently, and Mark Moos finally seems to be getting comfortable at 133. Michigan may have the best wrestlers in the country between 141-165, and they are strong at heavyweight with Greg Wagner, but wrestlers such as Moos must step up for this team to even think about winning an NCAA team title.
Nebraska recently defeated Iowa State, 16-15, and were one missed call, whether it be by the official or their coaching staff, away from tying Oklahoma State.
For this first time since the late 90’s, Nebraska seems to be getting better as the season progresses. Matt Murray (141) looks as though he may not have been a fluke to be in the NCAA finals last year, and Travis Pascoe (184) is having his best season yet.
For the last five years, wrestling fans and media have discussed the great parity in college wrestling. However, the last two NCAA titles have gone to Oklahoma State. The two before that? Minnesota. And it was Iowa’s era of dominance before that.
Since 1975, only five programs have won NCAA Division I team titles. Only 11 programs have ever won the team title in the tournament’s history that dates back to 1928.
At the start of the year, it seemed as if Iowa and Minnesota would both make strong runs towards the NCAA title. But both squads, each with loads of freshmen in the lineup, have slowed down the strong pace that they started the season with.
Until a program such as Illinois or Lehigh, which have never won NCAA team titles, place first at the NCAA Tournament, parity can never be a reality. Instead, it is a mission.
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